If I were to ask you to choose between these two options, which would you choose?

A) For the next 30 days, I will give you a thousand dollars a day.
B) Over the next 30 days, I will give you one cent on the first day, two cents on the second day, four cents on the third day, eight cents on the fourth day, and so on, doubling each day.

You have three seconds to decide: A or B.

If you chose option A, congratulations! At the end of 30 days, I'll give you thirty thousand dollars. Now, if you chose option B, I'll give you five million, three hundred and sixty-eight thousand, seven hundred and nine dollars and twelve cents. That's the power of exponential growth. Understanding exponential growth helps us understand the world in a way that is difficult to achieve intuitively alone. Let's see some examples. When we hear sentences like "inflation is ten percent" on the news, we really don't understand what that means with simple math. It is easy to calculate what this means. Start with the number 70 and divide it by the growth rate and percentage. In this example, 70 divided by 10 equals seven years. So what the news is saying is that it will only take you about seven years for all the money you have now to be worth only half of what it is worth now. If you have ten thousand dollars in the bank now, that means that in seven years you will only have five thousand dollars.

Here's another example: if your boss promises you a seven percent raise every year, that means it will take you almost 10 years to double your current salary. 70 divided by seven percent equals 10 years. So here's what this all means for you when it comes to exponential growth: don't trust your gut. You don't have it. Accept it. We humans have evolved to understand linear growth, not exponential. What really helps is the calculator or the Rule of 70, which we just discussed. The Rule of 70 is not 100% accurate; it's just a quick way to understand what growth rates mean. The ancient Persians were well aware that humans had problems with percentage growth rates. Here is an interesting story: once upon a time, a wise courtier gave the king a chess board. The gift delighted the king, so he said to him: "Tell me how I can thank you." The courtier replied, "Your Highness, I want nothing more than that you cover the chessboard with rice, placing one grain of rice on the first square, and then on each subsequent square, twice as many grains as before." The king was surprised. "It is an honor for you, dear courtier, to make such a humble request. But how much rice is it?" The king estimated that it was one sack. Only when his servants began the task, placing one grain in the first square, two grains of rice in the second square, four grains of rice in the third, and so on, did he realize that he would need more rice than grows on Earth. So the first the lesson in this summary is to never trust your gut when it comes to exponential growth rates; use a calculator or the rule of 70.

Lesson two: the illusion of sunk costs. When I was studying at university, I decided to start dressing nicely. So one of the first things I did was buy expensive shoes. I wasn't a rich student, so it was a pretty big investment for me. I went to the store with my close friend and we chose shoes together. After a few days, I realized that I didn't really like the shoes and they were very uncomfortable. I told my friend about the situation and he offered to buy them for half price, but I said no. So I continued to wear them despite the fact that they were uncomfortable and didn't go very well with the rest of my clothes. Eventually, after a few weeks, I couldn't take it anymore and stopped wearing them. But I always kept them on the shelf by the entrance. I carried those shoes from one house to another for years, and they took up shelf space for years. Not only that, every time I would enter or leave the house, I would see them on the shelf and it would make me feel bad. But I still kept them. I just couldn't throw them away or give them away. Why? Because I paid so much money for them. What happened to me is something called the sunk cost illusion. It is the tendency to value the energy we have already invested or the money we have already spent and to ignore the energy or money we will lose in the future. In other words, we focus on the past instead of the future. The sunk cost fallacy is one of the most common cognitive biases we fall into. For example, you are in a toxic relationship, but you cannot end it because you have invested years in the relationship. You have old clothes in your closet that you don't wear anymore, but you still keep them despite the fact that you will probably never wear them again. You buy food that turns out to be a bad choice, but you still eat it because you paid for it. You have a business, but it's not doing well, but you still stick with it because you invested two years in developing it. You buy a stock (investment)*, and after a few days, it drops 50 percent, and you want to sell it, but you say to yourself, "I can't sell it now because it's lost fifty percent of its value." This kind of thinking is irrational and a perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy. How much you paid for that stock should not affect your future decision to sell or hold it. The price you paid for it should play no role. The only thing you should focus on is the future performance of that stock. From now on, will it bring you money or not? Ironically, the more money an investment loses, the more investors tend to hang on to it, which is a mistake. Okay, now that you understand the sunk cost fallacy, here's how you can apply it to your life.

Number one: don't look back. Whether it's the price you paid or the time and energy you invested, it's irrelevant. Treat each day as a new day.

Number two: if you spend time researching something, say a stock, don't let it influence your purchasing decisions. To summarize, the sunk cost fallacy is a very serious and frequent trap that we face almost every day in life, business, and especially in investing. The past is the past; don't let it affect your future. Always ask yourself: does it make sense to stick with this decision starting today or not?

Number three: conjunction delusions. Which of these sentences do you think is more likely to be true?

A) I had two flat tires this morning.
B) I had two flat tires this morning because I passed a construction site.

So, A or B? Most people will go for B. It's easier to believe someone had two flat tires if they say there's a good reason for it, right? Unfortunately, B is the wrong answer. A is more likely. Why? Well, for option A to be correct, only one condition needs to be met: two punctured wheels. Now, for option B to be correct, you need to meet two conditions: two flat tires and passing a construction site. The more conditions that need to be met, the less likely things are to happen.
For example, many people travel every year; fewer people travel to Europe; even fewer people travel to Europe on business; even fewer people travel to Europe for business at the end of the year; and so on. The more conditions that need to be met, the less likely it is to happen. Why do people choose B then? Because of something called the conjunction fallacy. This happens when a subset appears larger than the whole set. We easily fall for the conjunction fallacy because we have an innate attraction to harmonious or plausible stories. If someone tells you they've had two flat tires at the same time, you'll think, "They must be lying." But if they give you a good story about why it happened, you tend to believe them. And many people use it to manipulate you. Who? Well, screenwriters and writers do. For example, when we watch or read a story, the more detailed it is, the more believable we find it, while a very general story seems boring and unreal, even though that general story is much more likely to have happened in real life than a specific one. Writers know this, so they add details to make the fiction sound believable. Or somehow you find yourself crying while watching an alien movie. Now, that's harmless manipulation. You know who else uses that to manipulate you? Salesmen, politicians, gurus. So what can you do to avoid manipulation of important decisions? Remember that we have a soft spot for plausible stories. When someone tries to tell you a story to convince you of something, look for the favorable details and happy endings. Remember, people will use any strategy they can to get you to do what they want.

Number four: the illusion of attention. In the 1990s, Harvard cognitive psychologists Daniel Simmons and Christopher Chabris filmed two groups of college students passing basketballs to each other. In the video, one group wore black T-shirts and the other wore white. Spectators were asked to count how many times players in white shirts pass the ball. Both teams move in circles, intertwining, passing the ball back and forth. In the middle of the video, something strange happens: a student dressed as a gorilla walks into the center of the room, beats his chest, and immediately disappears. When the video ended, they asked if you spotted the gorilla. Half the audience shook their heads in disbelief: "Gorilla? What gorilla?" Now, if you know the gorilla is coming, you're likely to notice it because your attention will be divided between the players in the white shirts and expecting the gorilla to come. But if you have no idea, then your attention is so focused on counting that you're likely to miss everything else. This is how it works in life. You think you are observant and notice everything that is happening around you, but the truth is that you only notice properly the things on which your attention is directed. Life is chaotic like that video with the basketball players and the gorilla. Something unusual can be huge, but we may not notice it. Being big and striking is not enough to get noticed; an unusual and enormous thing must be expected to be noticed. This means that there may be big things happening in your life that you miss out on simply because you are not looking for them. For example, have you ever heard someone say, "I was working so hard that I didn't notice my marriage was falling apart. I barely saved it"? You may think, "How did they not notice the problems in the marriage? Isn't that a big part of our lives?" Well, their attention was completely focused on something else, and that was work. So it's possible that they really haven't noticed what's going on in other aspects of their lives. The same can happen with our children, career or health. This is why we look back at our younger selves and say, "I can't believe I did that" or "I can't believe I didn't notice that." To make sure the illusion of attention doesn't affect you more than you'd like, here are some exercises you can try:

First, before you have an important event, face unexpected scenarios. For example, what would you do if two of your managers got into an argument during your presentation tomorrow? Imagine absurd scenarios that can help you see things from a different angle and expand your attention.

Second, meditate. Meditation helps you stay focused and think clearly.

Third, if you feel that someone is trying to convince you or manipulate you, but you can't see why, wait and ask yourself what they are not saying. Pay as much attention to silence as to noise.

Fourth, be present. Avoid letting your mind wander and try to think more about the events and people around you now than the past or the future.

Decision fatigue and information bias: Making decisions is exhausting, even when they are good decisions. Have you ever tried to choose a hotel based on comparisons on travel sites? Planning a trip is a perfect example of a positive situation that completely exhausts us after all the comparing, analyzing and choosing. This is called decision fatigue. Decision fatigue can be used against you. Many companies know that if they tire you out trying to choose between their products, you may not end up buying anything. They don't want that to happen, which is why companies and stores are very selective about what products they offer you and very dedicated to making your decision process easier. And here we come to the danger for you: if you are tired of decision fatigue, you become more susceptible to advertising and persuasion, a persuasive salesman and that's it; you made an impulse purchase that you will definitely regret later. So what can you do? If possible, choose to make important decisions in the morning when you are rested. If you can, choose mornings for situations where other people will have to make decisions for you, such as asking your boss for a raise. Make sure your head and body are rested when you go shopping. The same goes for going to the bank or any other place where you will have to make important decisions. Always be aware that the more options and choices you offer, the less likely people are to choose something or take action.

When it comes to elections, less is more. For example, if I ask you to write impressions, share them with friends, follow us on tiktok and instagram, you probably won't do any of those things. I have more success if I just ask for one thing, like, "If you like this analysis, follow us on Instagram."

Social laziness: Have you noticed that if you are in a meeting with three people, you are much more likely to engage in discussion compared to a meeting with 20 people? This is not just about shyness or exposure; it also happens because our brain realizes that the more people working on a certain goal, the smaller each person's share of the effort. Scientists call this effect social laziness. It occurs when individual performance merges into a group effort and becomes less the more people there are in the group. You might think that those who don't participate in discussions at your department meetings are lazy. That is not the case; social laziness is unconscious and occurs even in animals, such as horses pulling carts. For example, a horse will exert more effort to pull a cart if it is alone than if it is assisted by another horse. Now that you know that, what can you do? If you are a leader, prefer to organize smaller meetings with smaller sectors of your company instead of a big one. In case this is impossible, divide the large team into as small groups as possible. If you want teamwork to be present in your company, put together teams with multiple specializations. For example, instead of having a team with marketing members, another team with economists and a different team with developers, make sure that each team has a marketing person, an economist and a developer and they work together instead of with other people with the same specialization as them. If you are part of a group, make sure you and your team define specific individual tasks to make individual performances as visible as possible. That way, your team won't be able to rely on one or two members to complete the task.

Simple logic: I will ask you two questions. Stop reading if necessary, but don't cheat. Just go with the answer and logic that comes to mind first.

First question: At a department store, a ping pong racket and a plastic ball cost one dollar and ten cents. If the racket costs one dollar more than the ball, how much does the ball cost?

Another question: in a textile factory, five machines need to make five shirts in exactly five minutes. How many minutes will it take 100 machines to produce 100 shirts?

There is an intuitive answer to each of these questions. Perhaps these intuitive answers quickly come to mind as you listen to the questions: 10 cents and 100 minutes. But those are the wrong answers. Five cents and five minutes to be exact. The reason why our brains first think of intuitive but wrong answers is obvious: we mostly focus on the fact that the word "five" is repeated, so we repeat the words "hundred" before we even think about it.

Here's a scientific explanation: thinking is more exhausting than perceiving, so we tend to give in to intuition unless more effort is really required. This is pretty easy to understand, but how it affects your life is harder to guess. Our intuition often prevents us from analyzing issues further, making decisions based on emotion more than logic. This applies not only to ridiculous logic problems but also to big life decisions. So what can you do? If you feel very strongly about a topic, don't give in to your intuition. Stop for a minute and ask yourself if you are letting your emotions cloud your logic. When shopping, the salesperson may act intrusively to influence you to make impulse purchases before you have time to think about them. And sales sites do this by setting sales countdowns, such as "you have three minutes to enjoy this discounted price." Remember, you don't have to decide anything in a hurry. Even if your intuition tells you to buy something, take a few minutes to think about it logically. But never forget, not everything can be decided by logic, and sometimes it shouldn't even be. If you've tried but can't find a logical reason to ignore a strong intuition, don't ignore it. Our emotions are also tuned to protect us.

Social bias in comparison: suppose you work as a secretary. You are very aware of your skills and shortcomings. For example, you know you're extremely organized and a great speaker, but you still struggle with French and aren't very detail-oriented. One day, your boss realizes that you are overworked and to lighten your load, he asks for your help in hiring another secretary, someone who will be your assistant from now on.

The first candidate, Jordan, is a little clumsy and nervous, but he is very organized, just like you, and admits that he completely identifies with your problem with the French language.

Another candidate, Barbara, seemed very confident and from the moment she stepped into the office, she was fluent in French with your boss.

When your boss asks you who you liked best, do you choose Jordan or Barbara? If you're like most people, you chose Jordan, a clumsy and insecure candidate who isn't a threat to your job because his French isn't as good as yours. You may think this decision comes from insecurity, competitiveness, envy, intelligence, or even fear. Yes, those may be factors at play, but it all starts with a social bias in comparison: the tendency to withhold help from people who might outperform you, even if you end up being damaged in the long run. But you can say you're just minding your own business. Well, tell yourself that when your company starts losing all its customers from francophone countries because you failed to communicate with them properly. Social comparison bias is bad for companies, for science, and even for friendships and romantic relationships. Guy Kawasaki, a business consultant, says, "A players hire people who are even better than themselves, B players hire C players to make themselves feel superior to them, and C players hire D players." In other words, if you start recruiting B players, expect to end up with Z players. So what can you do? Hire people who are better than you as often as possible. Help people thrive; the more you help others, the better the world around you becomes. And you will bear the consequences. Rejoice in other people's success: your friend makes more money than you? Excellent. Your colleague got promoted? Awesome. The best thing you can do is learn from them so you can become more successful.

And that was all.I hope you found the book summary useful and inspiring. Greetings.